Real Estate Market Bulletin Blog

The latest news about the Massachusetts Housing Market
October 25, 2012

QE3 is Supposed to Help Housing, But Will it Cut Consumption?

Author: admin - Categories: Economic Indicators, Lending Rate, Mortgages, home sales trends, real estate trends - Tags: , , , ,

Low interest rates are good for housing, right?

The Federal Reserve moving billions of questionable mortgages off banks books, too, correct?  After all, isn’t it the uncertainty with the quality of mortgages acquired through CBOs and ongoing foreclosures that are keeping banks from risking more lending, and thus keeping housing sales depressed?

Don’t forget that housing depends as much on incomes and people’s willingness to consume.  An interested article from Reuters makes the case that QE3, by depressing interest rates, has actually served to depress consumption too given all of the people that rely on income from interest bearing investments like bonds or savings.

We tend to doubt that this has an effect on housing, however.  Most people that depend so much on interest bearing investments are going to be more conservative investors and thus likely close or in retirement - not necessarily the people who are about to trade up on a home or splurge on a new addition or pool.  Nevertheless, anything that affects overall consumption certainly may have an effect, but it will be less pronounced.

March 15, 2010

How far to the bottom?

Author: admin - Categories: Economic Indicators, Employment, Foreclosures, Real Estate News, home sales trends, real estate trends - Tags: , , ,

A number of conflicting reports suggest that while the housing market recovery has yet to start, we are closer to the end of the carnage than the beginning.

Recent stats:

  1. The Massachusetts Housing Partnership reported that a potential 65,000 or more homes could add to the state’s inventory of unsold homes due to pending foreclosures, or homes likely to be foreclosed on even after mortgage modifications.  This possible 2nd foreclosure wave would add as many homes to the market as are typically sold in a given year, suggesting further price depression.
  2. At the same time, the Fed’s March 3 Beige Book reports slow but steady strengthening of the economy, including stabilizing employment and rising wages, all of which will help reduce the chance of future foreclosures as those who still have their homes and jobs will be in a position to keep both.
  3. Ultimately, home prices are the best gauge of market health.  Those prices have been stopped declining in most parts of the US and are starting to rise in some, according to the Case Shiller index. See S&P PDF file with the current national home price rate of change.
March 23, 2009

Easing Credit Conditions = Summer Bump in Housing?

Author: admin - Categories: Economic Indicators, Real Estate News, real estate trends - Tags: , , , ,

Government statistics and public markets indicated continued progress on the credit situation even before today’s market rally bega.  Much of this admittedly is not being felt by the general public.  However, excess reserves in banks (see Reuters release and the Federal Reserve ) seems to have peaked with reserves down from $843 billion in the 1st week of January to just over $600 billion March 5, 2009, continuing a downward trend that started at the opening of the year. 

Cash is starting to move out of the banking system.  Much of it is going into precious metals, and the effective printing of money by the Fed announced last week won’t help that.  However, gold prices will peak if the current rally in treasuries and equities continues.  If that happens, look for cash to start flowing into other assets classes by the summer, including possibly housing.  An early sign of this was today’s 5% month on month increase in housing sales.

Housing Market
Real Estate News
Economic Indicators
Credit Crisis
Gold Prices

February 12, 2009

Reports Show 4th Quarter Real Estate Sales Worst Yet

Author: admin - Categories: Economic Indicators, Homes in MA, MA Open House, MA Real Estate News, MA open home, Mass Home Prices, New England News, Real Estate News, boston real estate news, home sales trends, real estate graphs, real estate trends

Local real estate sales in the fourth quarter were expectedly soft according to figures from the Multiple Listing Service (MLS) of the Chattanooga Association of Realtors.

Statistics show:

- “With 1,302 units sold, fourth quarter statistics were down 16.5 percent from 2007’s fourth quarter and 25.5 percent from the third quarter in 2008. It represented the year’s lowest quarter in terms of sales. ”

Even though October through December months represent some of the slowest months in real estate and are outpaced during the peak spring and summer months, the current economic troubles has only added a high degree of stress in the residential real estate market.

Housing Market
Existing Home Sales
Real Estate 4th Quarter

January 26, 2009

Prices Down, Sales Up?

Author: admin - Categories: Economic Indicators, Real Estate News, home sales trends, real estate trends

Recent stats mentioned in Bloomberg show that existing homes sales rose as much as 6% last month, due largely to price declines.  Still, a potentially massive increase in inventory may be likely as banks are bringing homes to market slowly according to CNN Money.  As always, we look partly to web site activity for home searches (which are an augur of buying interest) on real estate sites we are affiliated with, which is up 10% - 30% this month depending on the site.  That is a positive trend for sure, but may not be enough to stop the price definitively, in all markets, until later this year.

Housing Market
Existing Home Sales
Existing Home Inventory

January 8, 2009

No Sign for the Housing Market

Author: admin - Categories: Boston Real Estate, Economic Indicators, MA Open House, MA open home, Mass Home Prices, Real Estate News, home sales trends, mass homes, real estate graphs, real estate trends

According to the November numbers there was an average of 3,100 foreclosures per day in the U.S.  As the U.S. housing recession enters its fourth year, there’s no sign of a recovery because speculators account for most of the rise in sales.

December 23, 2008

Home sales, prices in deep plunge

Author: admin - Categories: Economic Indicators, Homes in MA, MA Real Estate News, MA open home, New England News, Real Estate News, home sales trends, ma mortgage, real estate graphs, real estate trends

As the National Association of Realtors reported home sales during November plummeted 8.6%. The annualized rate of home sales in November dropped to 4.49 million units while the projected number was 4.93 million units reported by industry analysts from Briefing.com.

Other reports are showing that existing home sales are now the weakest they have been since July 1997.

Read the full article of CNNMoney.com.


Mortgage Rates

December 18, 2008

Why Commerical Real Estate Will Recover Faster?

Author: admin - Categories: Economic Indicators, New England News, Real Estate News, boston real estate news, home sales trends, real estate graphs, real estate trends

As the economic environment is forcing more store closings, the retail segment is under the most stress. The commercial side, it is still experiencing demand for space including retail and commercial office but on a limited basis. The commercial office segment is being hit hard with the economic conditions whether is it trying to fill office space or just securing commercial office tenants for the future.

Read the full article here.


Mortgage Rates

December 15, 2008

Credit Conditions Improving?

Author: admin - Categories: Economic Indicators, Lending Rate, real estate trends - Tags: , , , , , ,

The TED Spread - the difference between between interbank loan interest and short-term U.S. government “T-Bill” interest has declined to its lowest point in over a month.  This indicator is generally seen as a gauge of the overall risk that banks are willing to take - the lower the number, the less perceived risk for inter-bank loans and thus the easier loans are to obtain, in general.  Coupled with the Fed’s well publicized aggressive push to lower mortgage rates below 4.5% plus the expected rate cut augur well for improvement in the housing market early next year.


Mortgage Rates